By Comr. Umaru Zayyanu Bilya, Taraba
Northeast is one of the Six Geo-political Zones in the country with landmass of over 5000km square comprising 6 States listed as follows: Adamawa- Yola, Bauchi – Bauchi, Borno- Maiduguri, Gombe- Gombe, Yobe – Damaturu and Taraba – Jalingo.
As the 2023 governorship elections in the country set to hold on Saturday, five (5) out of the six ( 6) incumbent state Governors in the zone namely: Alh. Umaru Ahmed Fintiri, Adamawa state, Alh. Muhammadu nuwa Yahaya, Gombe state, Alh. Bala Mohammed Abdulkadir, Bauchi State, Alh Mai Mala Buni, Yobe State, and Alh. Prof. Babagana Zulum, Borno state are all re-running for the second term, while the remaining one – the Executive Governor of Taraba, Darius ishaku bids for the senatorial seat after serving 8 years in power.
In my analysis, the one who will remain on his seat without any problems or fear of losing Election – is Prof zulum, he is someone I predicted to win his second term bid with higher votes. His records as the Governor of Borno state has proved to the world that he is the best. The man made his colleagues looks like they were mere councilors in their respective states in the zone, the candidate of the opposition party, the PDP in Borno state is not so strong as the incumbent Governor, i predicted.
In Yobe State, Governor Buni will also remain on his seat considering his widely known political influences, he is also a senior figure in the APC party. Yobe state in history have never been a PDP state, so there is much hint of possibilities for the Governor to remain on his seat.
Coming to Bauchi state, the incumbent Governor of Bauchi State – His Excellency Bala Mohammed (Kauran Bauchi) may have 50-50 % chance of returning to his seat as the battles on ground with the opposition candidate of the APC being the ruling party at the center is so hard for him.
This is based on the reason that one of the strongest members of the outgoing President’s cabinet and a wife to the APC candidate for Bauchi Governorship and current Minister of Humanitarian Affairs – Haj Sadiya Umar Farouq would be a great asset for her husband over his Governorship bid.
She won awards as the mother of all Poor people in the country, she had through her office, empowered thousands of Nigerians on different skills as well as the N-power project and provided relief funds to many people, which she distributed nationwide in form of palliatives. This is what made me to believe that the chance of His Excellency Bala Mohammed to resume as the Governor is 50-50%
In Adamawa state, the incumbent Governor, His Excellency Ahmed Fintiri is someone I respected and loved for his gigantic works as one term Governor of the state, whose hard works changed the face of Adamawa State with great development that impacted not only Yola City, the state capital but also all main communities in the Local Government areas of the state.
His main rival from the opposition who is contesting for the Governorship seat under the platform of the ruling party at the national level is one of the strongest women in Nigeria political circle. Sen. Binini Aisha, a woman and mother with great visionary in leadership. The chance of His Excellency Ahmed is also 50-50% in this clime, the advantage of the opposition party is that the female candidate have the support of the ruling party at national level that even the outgoing President, Muhammadu Buhari once spoke in support of her.
Another factor which may support the female contestant is the fact that Adamawa is well known as Fulani state, there is no way that the Fulani people in Adamawa will not vote in support of their sister, daughter and mother against the incumbent Governor. Another challenges for Gov. Fintiri is the offence of sacking some of the workers under the former Governor, Sen Bindow.
The sacked workers were said to have joined force with the opposition in working against his re-election. Even though they are to work together, no one is sure of what is in the minds and the hearts of people. If you observe from what going on, Governor Fintiri appeared to be madly campaigning in efforts to retain his seat because of his slim chance to return to Government House in Yola.
His Excellency Alh. Muhammadu Inuwa Yahaya of Gombe- has the chance to remain in power beyond 2023 if not for the challenge from Sen Danjuma Mahmoud Goje, the Gombe Landlord whose influence may affect the incumbent Governor if he don’t speed up in reaching out for forgiveness from Goje. His Excellency Inuwa is a project-oriented Governor, I salutes his great works in Gombe state!
For my home state, Taraba, His Excellency Governor Darius having complete his two terms as a Governor, is now vying for Senatotial Seat. So far, Four people are vying for Governorship Seat in Taraba state, these include Col Kefas of PDP, Sen Emmanuel of APC, Rep Baido of SDP and Prof Yahaya of NNPP. The two out of four contestants, APC and PDP Candidates appear to be the hottest contenders among the four candidates.
The PDP’s candidate, a young Col Kefas was the state chairman of PDP before he shifted to contestant for the coveted seat, while Emmanuel is an old horse inTaraba politics. If Kefas and the PDP are not careful, Emmanuel will win the contest, the rreason i tipped him to secure a victory is because he was among the bigwigs that started Taraba politics since 1999.
He have the secret of Taraba politics and has been a Senator for longer time which add to the advantage for him. He is also in the same camp with almost all the prominent leaders like Rev Jolly Nyame, etc, they can be of great help for him to win the Election. The chance between two top contestants is 30-30% and 20-20% for the rest of other contestants from other parties.
Come. Umaru Zayyanu is a pioneer National Youth Leader of Nigeria National Association of the Deaf (NNAD) and a social and political analyst.